US/Iran war lifting oil prices, but benefiting countries such as Australia, Norway and Brazil
The Brazilian Real has been among the best performing major currencies against the US dollar
The US-Iran conflict has propelled currencies from energy-exporting countries into the limelight, with windfall profits from exports of oil, gas and metals helping them to outperform the US dollar.
Bloomberg agency indicates strategists from JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank have singled out the Norwegian krone and the Australian dollar as the most promising energy-linked currencies, whilst the Brazilian Real has so far been the best-performing major currency with 3.15% uplift on the US dollar since March.
Kazakhstan has been the best-performing currency globally, gaining 10% over the past two months, as crude oil accounts for 17% of the country’s GDP.
Windfall profits from energy sales could prompt major exporters to adopt a tighter monetary policy, potentially even interest rate hikes in 2026 to cap inflation.
India, 89% dependent on crude oil imports to cover its domestic needs, has caught the other end of the stick, with the Indian rupee losing almost 3.5% compared to the US dollar since the onset of the US-Iran war.
