Amy Walter:
No, you’re exactly right. That is a big shift. I mean, right now, Democrats, they only need to net four seats to flip control to Democrats in this upcoming midterm election. You add another five onto that from Texas, and Ohio is also redistricting — doesn’t get as much attention as Texas, but they could get as many as two seats out of their mid-decade redistricting, which would add another seven really problematic seats for Democrats, maybe making as many as 10 or 11 seats that Democrats would need to net in order to get a majority.
So that’s a very, very big deal. In the last midterm election, Republicans narrowly carried that election, won control of Congress, but they netted just nine seats. So you can see, in this era of declining margins, even nine or 10 seats, it becomes really, really, really challenging.
And I’m watching California very closely. You’re exactly right, Geoff. I mean, this is a place where Democrats could make up some of those losses, four or five seats, maybe more, depending on how aggressive they want to get. But it is like most likely seems to go in front of voters. And that’s another real challenge here for Democrats.
Not only do they have to get it on the ballot in time, but they have got to convince voters who believe in this independent redistricting, who like independent redistricting, that going to partisan redistricting is worth it in order to fight back against President Trump.
Obviously, this is a very blue state, but it is going to be our first test of just how much blue voters want to fight fire with fire, as many blue legislators are saying they would like to be able to do.
