Analysts warn war looks more likely than a US-Iran deal as nuclear deadline approaches
Tensions rose after President Donald Trump publicly set a 10-to-15-day window to reach an understanding and said he is weighing options for a limited strike if talks fail
Analysts quoted by international media warned that, in the current phase of nuclear diplomacy, the risk of a military escalation between Iran and the United States now appears higher than the prospect of a deal, citing what they describe as Tehran’s miscalculation about Washington’s intentions and its own deterrent leverage.
Tensions rose after President Donald Trump publicly set a 10-to-15-day window to reach an understanding and said he is weighing options for a limited strike if talks fail. The negotiations have been indirect and mediated by Oman, with rounds held in Muscat on Feb. 6 and in Geneva on Feb. 17, according to official and media reports.
Iran is expected to table a proposal focused mainly on the nuclear file, rejecting “zero enrichment” and keeping off the agenda limits on its ballistic-missile program or its support for regional armed groups — issues Washington says must be part of any comprehensive agreement.
Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, said “the Islamic Republic is making a miscalculation” by believing the United States is not genuinely seeking a deal and that negotiations are merely a pathway to war — a belief he linked to Tehran’s failure to offer “unprecedented concessions.”
Political analyst Mashalá Shamsolwaezin, quoted by Iran’s Etemad newspaper, argued Washington follows a pattern of initial “optimistic” signals before raising demands, imposing deadlines and then moving toward military action if Iran does not yield. He nonetheless said Iran is “not defenseless,” claiming it could seriously confront the United States, including through capabilities to sink ships.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, meanwhile, played down the US naval posture in the Gulf and warned there is “a weapon” that could send an aircraft carrier “to the bottom of the sea,” remarks Vaez described as another example of Iran overestimating its own strength.
The broader standoff is accompanied by visible military moves: the United States has bolstered its regional presence with the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Gerald R. Ford strike group heading toward the area, while Iran has carried out drills in the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy corridor.
On the diplomatic track, the United Nations urged parties to keep channels open and avoid escalation, as regional actors continue efforts aimed at preventing a conflict.
