After showcasing its military and technological might at the Victory Day parade in Beijing on September 3, marking the 80th anniversary of China’s victory over Japan in the Second World War, Beijing is hopeful of capturing a bigger share in the lucrative global arms export market.
The display of China’s military might was witnessed first-hand by 26 heads of state in Beijing and was noted in all world capitals from Europe to the U.S.
While the parade’s primary purpose was to send a strategic message of strength to China’s adversaries, including the U.S., the display of military weapons systems was also meant to demonstrate to the world China’s capabilities in producing niche hi-tech weapons systems and secure new markets for the export of Chinese arms.
During the parade, China unveiled several new weapons systems, while also displaying the upgraded versions of many already seen weapons platforms.
China displayed the world’s first two-seater fifth-generation fighter jet, the J-20S. Beijing also unveiled the world’s most powerful laser weapon system, the LY-1 shipborne laser weapon.
This system can effectively damage the optical sensors of enemy weapons and equipment, and its emergence will truly change the rules of maritime warfare, the state-run Global Times claimed in its report.
China also displayed six different kinds of Air Defense and anti-ballistic missile weapons systems – the HQ-11, HQ-20, HQ-22A, HQ-9C, HQ-19, and HQ-29. Among them, the event marked the public debut of the HQ-20, HQ-22A, and HQ-19. The HQ-19 is touted as China’s biggest surface-to-air missile system that can also eliminate hostile satellites in low-Earth orbit.
Other notable weapons systems included the JL-1 air-launched long-range missile, the JL-3 submarine-launched intercontinental missile, and the DF-61 and DF-31BJ land-based intercontinental missiles.
The new-type DF-5C liquid-fueled intercontinental strategic nuclear missile, an upgraded variant of the DF-5, made its debut. The missile has a range of approximately 12,000 to 15,000 kilometers, capable of reaching targets across the globe, including the continental United States.
Four new types of YJ series anti-ship missiles were displayed for the first time at the military parade. These included the YJ-15, the YJ-17, the YJ-19, and YJ-20.
The PLA also showcased some Unmanned Aerial Combat Vehicles (UCAV) such as the Hongdu GJ-11, which is believed to be a loyal wingman drone that will operate alongside the Chinese fighter jets, and the Wing Loong-3.
Besides, China displayed unmanned surface vessels as well as robot wolves.
The catalogue is impressive by any standards and would have surely piqued the interest of multiple armed forces around the globe.
Now, the million-dollar question is this: To what extent will the V-Day parade help Beijing in cementing its place in the global arms export market?
However, before examining the future potential of Chinese weapons in the arms market, it is important to acknowledge that China is no longer a newcomer to the global arms market. Beijing has established itself as a significant player in this lucrative market, valued at nearly USD 150 billion annually.
China’s Place In The Global Arms Market
According to SIPRI, China was the world’s fifth-largest arms exporter between 2015 and 2019. During that period, China had a 5.5% share of the global arms export market, behind Germany (5.8%), France (7.9%), Russia (21%), and the U.S. at the top with a 36% share.
However, by the period 2020-2024, China had already cemented its position as the world’s fourth-largest arms exporter.
During these five years, China controlled a 5.9% share of the global arms export market, behind Russia (7.8%), France (9.6%), and again, the U.S. at the top with a 43% market share.
However, due to Russia’s involvement in the Ukraine War and the crippling Western sanctions on Moscow, affecting its ability to produce weapons platforms, Russia’s share is expected to decline further.
With the U.S. share in the global arms market already nearing the saturation point at 43%, China is, perhaps, the most well-placed country to take advantage of Russia’s declining share in the global arms export market.
Can the Victory Day parade help Beijing realize that goal?
China’s Arms Exports
While China’s arms exports are increasing, the SIPRI data also underlines that most of the Chinese arms exports are going to only a handful of countries.
Moreover, most of these countries are developing nations in Asia that have limited capacity to scale arms imports.
According to a study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), between the 10-year period from 2010 to 2020, Pakistan alone accounted for 49.1% of all Chinese arms exports.
Pakistan has imported all sorts of Chinese weapons, from fighter jets such as J-10C and JF-17, to air defense systems and missiles. Pakistan was the first customer of the J-10C fighter jet, and might very well be the first customer of China’s fifth-generation fighter jet, the J-35A.
Next comes Bangladesh, commanding a nearly 20% share of all Chinese arms exports between 2010 and 2020, followed by Myanmar at 11%.
Together, these three countries imported more than 80% of all Chinese arms exports.
Next are Thailand (3.2%) and Indonesia (2.6%). More than 97% of all Chinese arms exports were to Asian countries.
This clearly shows that despite commanding a nearly 6% share in the global arms export market, only a handful of countries are buying Chinese weapons.
According to SIPRI, between 2020 and 2024, the ten largest arms importing countries were: Ukraine, India, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Japan, Australia, Egypt, Kuwait, and South Korea, respectively.
Of the top 10, only Pakistan is importing Chinese weapons, followed by Egypt to a smaller degree. Again, as per SIPRI, Pakistan is already importing nearly 81% of its arms from China, and thus, can not further boost Chinese weapons sales.
In fact, due to various geopolitical factors, most of the world’s largest arms importers are unlikely to import any Chinese weapons, be it Ukraine, India, Japan, Australia, or South Korea.
The wealthy Gulf countries could be a potential market for Chinese weapons; however, so far, these countries are firmly in the U.S. bloc and are unlikely to switch sides in the near future.
This underlines the most crucial disadvantage associated with Chinese weapons: the geopolitics of the arms market.
Defense deals are never purely transactional businesses; instead, they are often driven by geopolitical alignments.
A case in point is Argentina’s recent decision to ditch China’s Chengdu-PAC JF-17 Thunder fighter jet and buy used F-16s from Denmark.
The decision was influenced by geopolitical considerations, particularly U.S. pressure to counter China’s growing influence in Latin America, as well as economic factors and the desire to align with Western military systems.
The JF-17 Block III, with advanced avionics and weaponry, was a strong contender but was ultimately rejected in favor of the F-16s, which were approved by the U.S. and signed for in a US$300 million deal in April 2024.
It is precisely for such geopolitical factors that a large swathe of Latin America, North America, Europe, India, Japan, and South Korean markets will remain out of reach for Chinese weapons.
Within Europe, India, Japan, South Korea, and North America, China is widely seen not as a partner, but instead as a strategic competitor, and even as an adversary. Chinese weapons are unlikely to find an opening in these lucrative markets.
It is for these reasons that Chinese fighter jets, despite being combat-tested in the recent India-Pakistan clash in May and despite enjoying a massive cost advantage over rivals such as Rafale, are unlikely to find markets in Europe.
Security analysts also realize that geopolitical factors are a significant hurdle for Chinese weapons to break into new markets.
Liselotte Odgaard, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington and professor at the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies, noted that Chinese fighter jets and weapons “would not be a good choice” for the European countries that were dependent on the U.S. for their security.
For many non-aligned, developing nations, Chinese weapons are appealing due to their affordability and growing sophistication. Export growth will likely focus on regions with weaker political ties to Washington, where countries seek cost-effective alternatives to Western arms.
However, China could capture markets where Russian arms have been popular. Russia’s preoccupation with the Ukraine war could give Beijing an opening to capture these markets.
Brian Hart, deputy director and fellow of the China Power Project at the CSIS, said that China’s increase in arms sales could result in Russia being the biggest loser in the arms sales competition.
“The United States sells to its military allies and other close security partners, while Russia has historically captured much of the rest of the global market share. If China begins selling military equipment, it will likely make the most inroads with countries that have historically bought from Russia – especially since much of China’s own equipment has evolved from systems designed by Russia.”
The modern, state-of-the-art weapons systems displayed at the Victory Day parade have definitely left their mark. Chinese anti-ship missiles, hypersonic weapons, robotic systems, and unmanned systems are technologically advanced and cost-competitive; however, most of these systems are not combat-tested, and China’s geopolitical position means that Beijing still might have to look hard for customers in the global arms market.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
