If New York played like a team on a mission last season on its way to the WNBA title, Minnesota appeared to be that club most of this year.
But the Lynx played so-so basketball down the stretch while the Aces got hot and the Liberty got healthy, and suddenly the road to the championship seems a little wider.
Bettors view it that way as well.
The top-seeded Lynx remain the favorites — they are +105 at BetMGM Sportsbook — to win it all as the playoffs begin Sunday.
Second-seeded Las Vegas, which ended the season on a 16-game winning streak, is next at +280. The No. 5 Liberty are right behind at +340. The numbers at Caesars Sportsbook are similar.
“It's definitely those top three teams separating themselves from the pack as far as odds go,” said David Lieberman, Caesars pro basketball lead trader.
Dana Lane, a handicapper for wizardsportspicks.com, has been on the Lynx since the preseason.
But they went 6-5 to end the season, including a 97-87 loss at Las Vegas on Sept. 4. Minnesota was the last club to defeat the Aces, handing them a 111-58 loss on Aug. 2 — the largest margin of victory for a road team.
“I still like the Minnesota Lynx,” Lane said. “First of all, they are stacked, which I haven't felt any different about since the beginning of the season. A really nice win against Minnesota at home for the Aces for sure, but the thing is Minnesota still has more than proven that they can come to Vegas and win here on a consistent basis.”
Wilson makes late MVP push
Minnesota's Napheesa Collier was the clear favorite for league MVP for most of the season, but Aces star A'ja Wilson passed her.
Wilson, who last season won the award for the third time, was +650 at BetMGM before the teams met earlier this month and then delivered a 31-point, eight-rebound performance, tying the league record with her 12th 30-point game this season.
Collier scored 12 points on 5-of-13 shooting.
Wilson, named AP Player of the Year on Friday, became a -135 favorite two days later.
“That is a drastic change,” BetMGM sports trader Christian Cipollini said. “I'd say that's one of the wilder changes in a few days, especially for an awards market.”
Collier could still be named MVP. Voter fatigue could work against Wilson, and Collier is the second player to shoot at least 50% from the floor, 40% from the 3-point arc and 90% from the free throw line. Elena Delle Donne in 2019 also accomplished that feat.
“I think Collier is probably one of the most underrated players in the league right now,” Lane said. “You see a lot more of A'ja Wilson than you do of Collier.”
Atlanta dreams of the title
Third-seeded Atlanta is fourth at BetMGM in betting odds, but the Dream's odds went from +900 to +1400 on Friday.
“Atlanta is kind of the consistent fourth choice,” Lieberman said. “They've been hovering around that 10-1 mark (at Caesars) for most of the second half of the season, so they're in the mix.”
Lane said he thinks the Dream will be better positioned next season to make a deep run.
“I just don't think they match up star for star,” Lane said. “In the postseason, you've got to have stars and you've got to have depth. Outside of Allisha Gray, they don't have stars. They have pieces. … I don't think they match up with Vegas, and I certainly don't think they match up with Minnesota.”
Clark injury lowers betting interest
The groin injury that ended Caitlin Clark's season with two months left not only affected fan interest in the WNBA, but the betting market became much less active.
Though BetMGM took about half of what the sportsbook received last season when Clark became the league's must-see attraction on the way to winning Rookie of the Year.
Clark's star power made Indiana became a finacial liability for BetMGM, but with the sixth-seeded Fever also suffering several other major injuries, they don't appear to be much of a threat to win the WNBA title.
“From a BetMGM liability standpoint, the three biggest favored teams — Lynx, Aces and Liberty — are all winning outcomes currently for the book,” Cipollini said. “A lot of that stems from the fact we were taking most of our action on the Fever.”
No drama for top rookie
BetMGM listed Dallas' Paige Bueckers, this year's No. 1 draft pick, at -10000 to win Rookie of the Year. To put that in perspective, someone would need to bet $10,000 to win $100.
Bueckers tied the rookie single-game scoring record with 44 points against Los Angeles on Aug. 20. She finished the season averaging 19.2 points and 5.4 assists.
