Obrador’s Morena party has swept the polls for the Congress as well as other positions for which simultaneous elections were held on Sunday. The coalition of Morena party has got very close to clinching a supermajority in Congress, obtaining two-thirds of the seats in the lower house and nearly two-thirds in the senate. Even in gubernatorial races that were expected to be competitive, Morena and its allies have emerged victorious with clear margins. Obrador is likely to use this majority to try constitutional changes to advance his progressive agenda, although some of them are controversial.
As a committed leftist and disciple of Obrador, Sheinbaum has criticized the neoliberal economic policies of Washington Consensus followed by the past presidents of Mexico, arguing that they had contributed to inequality in the country. She has promised to expand welfare and intends to continue the programs started by Obrador.
Foreign policy
While Obrador would continue to influence Sheinbaum in some domestic policies, she will get a free hand in foreign policy for which Obrador has complete disdain. He has ignored foreign policy and has zero ambition to raise his or Mexico’s profile in the region or globally. He said “the best foreign policy is a good domestic one” He considers foreign travel as a waste and avoids summit meetings. His travels have been limited only to a few trips to US and Latin America.
But Obrador was proactive in extending support to leftist presidents in trouble and attacking the right wing presidents in Latin America. He had given asylum to leftist presidents overthrown in coups and criticized right wing regimes bluntly and publicly. These have lead to diplomatic disruptions in some cases. He has downplayed the non-democratic leftist regimes of Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. At the same time, he has not sought to be a regional leader of the left, unlike Chavez and Lula.
Sheinbaum will be more sober and pragmatic in foreign policy and avoid the anti-right and pro-left rhetoric of her predecessor.
Relations with the US
López Obrador pledged at the beginning of his administration in 2018 that there would be no tension with the U.S. and he has largely kept that promise by working quietly with the US on issues of serious concern such as illegal migration. Obrador managed both President Trump and Biden without major controversies. In fact, he had shown support at times to Trump despite the latter’s ugly anti-Mexican attacks. But he refused to give in to the American pressure to give priority to deal with drug cartels and militarize the issue. He took the stand that “ hugs not bullets” is needed in Mexico to deal with the fundamental socioeconomic issues.
Obrador has called for the removal of the US sanctions on Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. In 2022, he had refused to attend the Summit of Americas in Los Angeles because those three countries were not invited.
Sheinbaum has said Mexico would have “good relations” with either Mr. Trump or Mr. Biden as president, and that Mexico would continue to work to contain flows of illegal migrants.
Mexico is the largest trading partner and the #1 source of imports of US. Mexico has overtaken China as the largest exporter to US in 2023, thanks to the USMCA Free Trade Agreement with the US and Canada. As part of the new trend of friend-shoring, many American firms and global MNCs are shifting manufacturing to Mexico from China.
Sheinbaum is the first Mexican president of Jewish heritage. In a newspaper Op-ed in 2009, she wrote, “No reason justifies the murder of Palestinian civilians” and called for Palestinian liberation and reflected on her own family’s history of escaping Nazi persecution.
President Obrador has has refused to join the US sanctions on Russia and has condemned supply of arms by the west to Ukraine.
India- Mexico
Mexico is the second largest destination for India’s exports to Latin America. The 2023-24 exports of India to Mexico (5324 m) are more than the exports to Thailand (5038 m), Russia (4261 m), Canada (3845 m), Sri Lanka (4117 m) and Egypt (3520 m).
Mexico is the largest destination for India’s global exports of motor cycles with 281 million dollars. Car exports to Mexico are 874 m in 2023-24.
India can increase its exports significantly if it signs a FTA with Mexico which has FTA with 50 countries. Mexico’s total imports were over 600 billion dollars in 2023.
India’s imports from Mexico were 3.1 billion dollars. Crude oil accounted for 1.8 billion dollars, followed by electrical equipment worth 442 m.
