Aaron David Miller:
Look, I think that part of the sort of unsaid objective here is not just to destroy Hamas as a military organization, but to hollow it out and deny it governing capacity. It’s still paying salaries. It still has its probably Palestinian Authority paid officials basically on the ground.
And, look, the Israelis have, what, taken over 75 percent of Gaza. The 25 percent that they have not taken over is the 25 percent where the vast majority of Palestinians are now living, in, what, anywhere from 12 to 20 percent of an already — one of the most densely populated areas on the planet?
So I think the idea is to separate the fighters from the population, have a clear field to either lay siege to Gaza City and the Hamas elements inside, or to begin operating inside Gaza City proper and then expand to the central refugee camps.
And, look, let’s be clear. In May of 2024, the Israelis ended up one way or another moving almost 800,000 Palestinians out of Rafah before they began their military operations. So can they move the population? Yes, but at a frightful cost.
You pointed out the humanitarian issue here. Whether it’s malnutrition, starvation, food insecurity, large numbers of Palestinians are dying for lack of adequate food. And once you get to malnutrition, you’re talking about systemic illnesses that require access, predictable and regular access to medical care.
So no, I think that this plan won’t work. And we’re going to find ourselves on October 7, which is the date that the Israelis are now using to complete the evacuation of Gaza City of civilians, we’re going to find ourselves in an even more fraught and tragic position for the hostages, their families, and for the residents of Gaza.
