Tempo de leitura: 5 min
Confira no gráfico interativo do Agregador de Pesquisas da BBC News Brasil quem lidera a corrida presidencial. Os dados são constantemente atualizados com as últimas pesquisas:
Com os resultados das pesquisas nacionais divulgadas até a quarta-feira (05/08), a estimativa de intenção de votos no petista no segundo turno está em torno de 46%, enquanto Flávio Bolsonaro tem 43%.
O Agregador de Pesquisas da BBC News Brasil compila resultados de todas pesquisas eleitorais e calcula a estimativa de intenção de voto para os candidatos e pré-candidatos à Presidência. Ele não prevê o resultado final da eleição, mas mostra a estimativa da situação atual da opinião pública.
A estimativa de intenção de voto do agregador pode ser entendida como uma “média” das pesquisas, mas leva em conta pesos diferentes para cada levantamento.
Feito em parceria com a consultoria PollingData, o agregador mostra Lula à frente também no cenário de primeiro turno, seguido por Flávio Bolsonaro, na segunda posição.
Os nomes que aparecem a seguir são: Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), Renan Santos (Missão), Romeu Zema (Novo), Augusto Cury (Avante), Samara Martins (UP), Cabo Daciolo (Mobiliza), Clariana Barão (DC), Leonardo Avalanche (PRTB), Edmilson Costa (PCB), Hertz Dias (PSTU) e Rui Pimenta (PCO).
Ainda de acordo com o Agregador de Pesquisas da BBC News Brasil, 11% dos eleitores ainda não escolheram um pré-candidato ou pretendem votar em branco ou anular o voto.
Como as candidaturas ainda não foram totalmente oficializadas, mais de um candidato por partido pode aparecer nas pesquisas. Os partidos têm até o dia 15 de agosto para registrarem as candidaturas.
Na ferramenta interativa acima, você confere a evolução das estimativas de primeiro turno para os três nomes com maior intenção de voto, além do cenário de segundo turno entre Lula e Flávio Bolsonaro.
O que é um agregador de pesquisas?
O Agregador de Pesquisas da BBC News Brasil utiliza um modelo estatístico desenvolvido pela PollingData que combina os resultados das pesquisas eleitorais e calcula uma estimativa global das intenções de voto para os pré-candidatos nas eleições presidenciais.
Os resultados das pesquisas feitas por institutos como Datafolha, Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, AtlasIntel, entre outros, variam devido a diferenças nas metodologias e nos grupos entrevistados. Assim, o Agregador de Pesquisas da BBC News Brasil é uma ferramenta útil para entender a evolução consolidada das intenções de voto dos políticos na disputa.
O cálculo considera as características de cada levantamento e de cada instituto (leia mais abaixo).
São consideradas as pesquisas em nível nacional registradas no Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE). Para o registro, os institutos devem seguir regras de transparência de dados e metodologia.
Qual é a distância entre os pré-candidatos no 1º turno das eleições?
Na imagem abaixo, veja a mais recente margem de intenção de voto estimada para políticos que apareceram em ao menos uma pesquisa eleitoral nos 15 dias anteriores à última atualização do agregador.
Intervalo e linha central de estimativa de apoio a possíveis candidatos
| Partido | Pesquisa média | Faixa de votação |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0133% | % | |
| 0.0059% | % | |
| 0.0031% | % | |
| 0.0027% | % | |
| 0.3389% | % | |
| 0.0021% | % | |
| 0.0031% | % | |
| 0.4092% | % | |
| 0.1084% | % | |
| 0.0445% | % | |
| 0.0252% | % | |
| 0.0452% | % | |
| 0.0016% | % | |
| 0.0083% | % |
Os nomes aparecem em ordem decrescente de estimativa de intenção de voto. Os valores estão arredondados para o número inteiro mais próximo.
Há 95% de chance de que a intenção de voto real para cada político, neste momento, esteja dentro do intervalo mostrado no gráfico (indicado entre parênteses e representado pelas barras).
Os intervalos são maiores (menor confiança) quando o nome aparece em poucas pesquisas e/ou teve maior variação nos resultados.
Quais pesquisas são consideradas?
O Agregador de Pesquisas da BBC News Brasil tem como base as pesquisas registradas no TSE divulgadas a partir de janeiro de 2026 realizadas por institutos como Datafolha, Quaest, AtlasIntel, MDA, Gerp, entre outros.
São consideradas as pesquisas estimuladas (quando o entrevistador apresenta uma lista pré-definida de possíveis candidatos) com cenários que incluem Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro, e outros candidatos (exceto outros integrantes da família Bolsonaro e o governador de São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas).
Deslize a tabela para ver mais dados das pesquisas
| 43,0% | 35,0% | 6,0% | 5,7% | 4,7% | 2,6% | 1,7% | 0,3% | 0,6% | – | – | 0,2% | 0,1% | 0,1% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | BR-04579/2026 |
| 39,0% | 30,0% | 18,0% | 4,0% | 4,0% | 2,0% | 1,0% | 1,0% | 1,0% | 0,3% | 0,3% | 0,3% | 0,3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | BR-06591/2026 |
| 41,0% | 37,0% | 7,0% | 5,0% | 4,0% | 3,0% | 1,0% | 1,0% | 1,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | BR-02874/2026 |
| 41,0% | 35,0% | 9,0% | 5,0% | 4,0% | 3,0% | 3,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | BR-07845/2026 |
| 40,5% | 31,2% | 11,9% | 5,5% | 3,0% | 3,2% | 1,1% | 0,2% | 0,9% | 0,7% | 0,5% | 0,6% | 0,3% | 0,4% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | BR-01084/2026 |
| 43,0% | 29,0% | 10,0% | 7,0% | 3,0% | 6,0% | 1,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | BR-04488/2026 |
| 44,9% | 35,8% | 1,6% | 3,1% | 7,8% | 2,8% | 1,6% | 2,1% | 0,1% | – | – | 0,3% | 0,1% | 0,3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | BR-08602/2026 |
| 47,4% | 37,0% | 1,6% | 3,3% | 7,8% | 2,9% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | BR-08602/2026 |
| 42,0% | 33,0% | 8,0% | 6,0% | 5,0% | 3,0% | 2,0% | – | 1,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | BR-01489/2026 |
| 40,0% | 32,0% | 11,0% | 4,0% | 3,0% | 3,0% | 2,0% | 1,0% | 1,0% | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | BR-01166/2026 |
| 38,0% | 38,0% | 12,0% | 3,0% | 3,0% | 3,0% | 1,0% | 1,0% | 1,0% | – | – | – | – | 0,3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | – | – | BR-05026/2026 |
| 40,0% | 33,0% | 6,0% | 7,0% | 9,0% | 2,0% | 1,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | – | – | BR-09247/2026 |
| 41,0% | 30,0% | 15,0% | 6,0% | 3,0% | 3,0% | 1,0% | 0,3% | 0,3% | – | – | – | 0,3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | – | – | BR-02904/2026 |
| 40,0% | 34,0% | 10,0% | 4,0% | 6,0% | 4,0% | 3,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | BR-00059/2026 |
| 40,0% | 28,0% | 19,0% | 4,0% | 3,0% | 2,0% | 1,0% | 1,0% | 1,0% | – | – | 0,3% | 0,3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | 0,3% | – | BR-07181/2026 |
| 40,0% | 34,0% | 9,0% | 5,0% | 4,0% | 4,0% | 2,0% | – | 0,3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | – | 2,0% | – | – | BR-07981/2026 |
| 40,1% | 36,8% | 8,7% | 5,0% | 2,6% | 3,7% | 1,1% | – | 0,7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,4% | – | – | BR-07294/2026 |
| 37,8% | 35,7% | 10,2% | 7,9% | 3,4% | 5,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | BR-07294/2026 |
| 42,6% | 38,6% | 8,7% | – | 3,9% | 6,2% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | BR-07294/2026 |
| 36,0% | 36,0% | 17,0% | 4,0% | 2,0% | 2,0% | 1,0% | 0,3% | 0,3% | – | – | – | – | 0,3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,3% | – | 1,0% | – | – | BR-03067/2026 |
| 36,0% | 36,0% | 17,0% | 4,0% | 2,0% | 2,0% | 1,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | – | – | BR-03067/2026 |
| 40,4% | 32,0% | 13,6% | 4,0% | 2,0% | 2,5% | 1,5% | 0,4% | 0,5% | – | – | 0,1% | 0,1% | 0,4% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | – | 0,5% | – | – | BR-05628/2026 |
| 46,3% | 36,6% | 1,2% | 2,9% | 7,8% | 2,0% | 0,5% | 0,6% | 0,3% | – | – | 0,3% | 0,3% | 0,1% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,7% | – | 1,0% | – | – | BR-04582/2026 |
| 47,2% | 36,3% | 1,3% | 3,1% | 7,8% | 3,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,2% | – | – | BR-04582/2026 |
| 42,0% | 34,0% | 8,0% | 5,0% | 4,0% | 3,0% | 1,0% | – | 1,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | – | 1,0% | – | – | BR-08521/2026 |
| 42,0% | 35,0% | 8,0% | 5,0% | 5,0% | 3,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | – | – | BR-08521/2026 |
| 38,3% | 32,2% | 14,3% | 5,1% | 2,5% | 3,8% | 0,7% | – | 0,5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,7% | – | 0,9% | – | – | BR-06630/2026 |
| 40,0% | 36,0% | 8,0% | 4,0% | 4,0% | 3,0% | 3,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3,0% | – | – | BR-05722/2026 |
| 42,0% | 31,0% | 14,0% | 5,0% | 3,0% | 3,0% | 1,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | – | – | BR-08944/2026 |
| 37,0% | 34,0% | 17,0% | 4,0% | 3,0% | 3,0% | 1,0% | 1,0% | 1,0% | – | – | – | – | 0,3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | – | – | BR-09657/2026 |
| 41,0% | 31,0% | 11,0% | 3,0% | 3,0% | 2,0% | 2,0% | 2,0% | 1,0% | – | – | 0,3% | 0,3% | 1,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | – | 1,0% | – | 0,3% | BR-09956/2026 |
| 38,0% | 30,0% | 19,0% | 4,0% | 3,0% | 2,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | – | – | BR-09521/2026 |
| 41,8% | 28,2% | 14,9% | 4,0% | 2,0% | 2,8% | 1,8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,9% | – | – | 2,3% | – | – | BR-04256/2026 |
| 42,0% | 33,0% | 8,0% | 4,0% | 4,0% | 2,0% | 2,0% | – | 1,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | – | 2,0% | – | – | BR-06645/2026 |
| 43,0% | 34,0% | 8,0% | 4,0% | 5,0% | 3,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3,0% | – | – | BR-06645/2026 |
| 41,6% | 34,1% | 10,0% | 4,5% | 2,3% | 3,5% | 0,9% | – | 1,1% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,1% | – | – | BR-01461/2026 |
| 39,8% | 32,8% | 10,1% | 8,5% | 3,5% | 5,3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | BR-01461/2026 |
| 40,0% | 31,0% | 8,0% | 7,0% | 2,0% | 7,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | 3,0% | – | – | BR-03496/2026 |
| 39,0% | 29,0% | 19,0% | 3,0% | 3,0% | 2,0% | 1,0% | 1,0% | 0,3% | – | – | 0,3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | – | 1,0% | 0,3% | – | BR-07661/2026 |
| 34,0% | 35,0% | 19,0% | 2,0% | 4,0% | 2,0% | 1,0% | 0,3% | 0,3% | – | – | 0,3% | – | 0,3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | – | 0,3% | BR-01792/2026 |
| 34,0% | 35,0% | 19,0% | 2,0% | – | 2,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 4,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | – | – | BR-01792/2026 |
| 42,1% | 33,6% | 5,2% | 6,9% | 3,1% | 5,1% | 0,5% | – | 0,3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,1% | – | 1,1% | – | – | BR-08016/2026 |
| 38,0% | 31,0% | 7,0% | 6,0% | 6,0% | 4,0% | 1,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3,0% | – | 3,0% | – | – | BR-05864/2026 |
| 38,0% | 31,0% | 8,0% | 6,0% | 6,0% | 5,0% | 1,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3,0% | – | – | – | 1,0% | BR-05864/2026 |
| 40,0% | 35,0% | 9,0% | 3,0% | 3,0% | 4,0% | 3,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3,0% | – | – | BR-04882/2026 |
| 38,5% | 31,5% | 15,6% | 5,5% | 2,1% | 2,4% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | BR-02918/2026 |
| 39,0% | 31,0% | 19,0% | 4,0% | 2,0% | 3,0% | 0,3% | 0,3% | 0,3% | – | – | – | 0,3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3,0% | – | – | BR-02154/2026 |
| 39,0% | 31,0% | 19,0% | 4,0% | 2,0% | 3,0% | 0,3% | 0,3% | 0,3% | – | – | – | 0,3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3,0% | – | – | BR-02154/2026 |
| 40,0% | 35,0% | 9,0% | 5,0% | 3,0% | 4,0% | 1,0% | – | 1,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | – | – | BR-04193/2026 |
| 41,0% | 35,0% | 8,0% | 5,0% | 4,0% | 4,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3,0% | – | – | BR-04193/2026 |
| 38,0% | 38,0% | 10,0% | 2,0% | 3,0% | 3,0% | 1,0% | 1,0% | 1,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | BR-07971/2026 |
| 42,7% | 35,6% | 10,6% | 3,3% | 1,7% | 3,9% | 0,9% | – | 1,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,4% | BR-06529/2026 |
| 40,0% | 31,0% | 12,0% | 4,0% | 3,0% | 3,0% | 2,0% | 3,0% | 1,0% | – | – | – | 0,3% | 1,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | BR-07489/2026 |
| 41,5% | 32,1% | 14,3% | 5,9% | 1,5% | 4,1% | 0,3% | – | 0,2% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,1% | BR-02416/2026 |
| 37,4% | 30,2% | 15,7% | 2,9% | 7,4% | 3,6% | 1,3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | BR-09301/2026 |
| 37,3% | 37,1% | 11,5% | 2,8% | 2,3% | 6,5% | 2,3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,3% | BR-05888/2026 |
| 38,0% | 35,0% | 12,0% | 3,0% | 2,0% | 3,0% | 2,0% | 2,0% | 1,0% | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | BR-00290/2026 |
| 37,0% | 34,0% | 11,0% | 2,0% | 2,0% | 4,0% | 2,0% | 1,0% | 1,0% | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | – | – | – | 5,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | BR-00290/2026 |
| 34,3% | 36,5% | 14,0% | 4,1% | 1,3% | 2,9% | 1,2% | – | 0,4% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5,1% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,2% | BR-02423/2026 |
| 35,1% | 37,8% | 15,0% | 4,3% | 1,8% | 4,5% | 0,8% | – | 0,5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,2% | BR-02423/2026 |
| 34,0% | 36,0% | 12,0% | 1,0% | 1,0% | 5,0% | 1,0% | 1,0% | 0,3% | – | – | – | – | 0,3% | – | – | – | 6,0% | 2,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | BR-03369/2026 |
| 35,0% | 37,0% | 12,0% | 2,0% | 1,0% | 6,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | BR-03369/2026 |
| 39,0% | 33,0% | 15,0% | 4,0% | 2,0% | 4,0% | 1,0% | 1,0% | 1,0% | – | – | – | 0,3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,3% | BR-03598/2026 |
| 38,3% | 36,1% | 9,6% | 4,4% | 1,5% | 3,6% | 1,4% | – | 0,6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 4,4% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,1% | BR-03678/2026 |
| 38,1% | 37,4% | 12,9% | 5,7% | 2,3% | – | 1,5% | – | 1,4% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,7% | BR-03678/2026 |
| 40,0% | 36,0% | 9,1% | 5,6% | 1,4% | 3,0% | 1,5% | – | 0,3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,8% | BR-05356/2026 |
| 40,0% | 34,0% | 11,0% | 5,0% | 3,0% | 4,0% | 1,0% | – | 1,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | BR-03627/2026 |
| 38,0% | 33,0% | 11,0% | 4,0% | 3,0% | 4,0% | 1,0% | – | 1,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 4,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | BR-03627/2026 |
| 46,6% | 39,7% | 0,6% | 3,3% | 5,3% | 3,1% | 1,1% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,3% | BR-07992/2026 |
| 44,2% | 39,3% | 0,4% | 3,0% | 5,1% | 3,5% | 0,4% | 2,0% | 0,3% | – | – | 0,2% | 0,3% | 0,3% | – | – | – | 1,3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,4% | BR-07992/2026 |
| 41,0% | 36,0% | 8,0% | 3,0% | 3,0% | 4,0% | 2,0% | – | 1,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | BR-01075/2026 |
| 41,0% | 36,0% | 9,0% | 4,0% | 4,0% | 5,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | BR-01075/2026 |
| 41,0% | 38,0% | 9,0% | 6,0% | 4,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | BR-01075/2026 |
| 37,0% | 32,0% | 16,0% | 6,0% | 2,0% | 3,0% | 2,0% | 1,0% | 1,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,3% | BR-09285/2026 |
| 39,2% | 30,2% | 19,3% | 4,6% | 1,8% | 3,3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,5% | BR-02847/2026 |
| 39,8% | 37,3% | 11,6% | 4,8% | 1,4% | 2,9% | 1,3% | – | 0,5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,3% | BR-08282/2026 |
| 38,4% | 38,2% | 11,5% | 6,0% | 2,0% | – | 1,9% | – | 1,1% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,8% | BR-08282/2026 |
| 39,0% | 35,0% | 14,0% | 5,0% | 2,0% | 4,0% | – | – | 1,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | BR-03770/2026 |
| 40,4% | 37,0% | 9,5% | 6,5% | 3,0% | 3,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,6% | BR-00605/2026 |
| 33,2% | 35,9% | 20,0% | 1,9% | 1,8% | 1,8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3,0% | – | – | – | 2,1% | – | – | – | – | – | 0,4% | BR-02476/2026 |
| 41,0% | 38,0% | 10,0% | 4,0% | 2,0% | 4,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,3% | BR-07875/2026 |
| 39,0% | 39,0% | 9,0% | – | 3,0% | 5,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 4,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | BR-07875/2026 |
| 42,0% | 39,0% | 8,0% | – | 3,0% | 6,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | BR-07875/2026 |
| 41,3% | 37,8% | 12,0% | 3,6% | 1,2% | 3,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,1% | BR-00873/2026 |
| 38,0% | 36,0% | 9,0% | 3,0% | 1,0% | 3,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 4,0% | – | – | 7,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,3% | BR-02846/2026 |
| 38,0% | 37,0% | 7,0% | 5,0% | 1,0% | 5,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,3% | BR-02846/2026 |
| 37,0% | 37,0% | 8,0% | – | 1,0% | 4,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5,0% | – | – | 7,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,3% | BR-02846/2026 |
| 38,0% | 40,0% | 7,0% | – | 1,0% | 5,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3,0% | 7,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,3% | BR-02846/2026 |
| 45,9% | 40,1% | 2,2% | 3,7% | 4,4% | 3,1% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,6% | BR-04227/2026 |
| 45,5% | 42,4% | 1,9% | – | 4,6% | 3,7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,2% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,8% | BR-04227/2026 |
| 45,7% | 40,6% | 1,9% | – | 4,5% | 3,3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3,4% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,7% | BR-04227/2026 |
| 40,0% | 41,0% | 11,0% | – | 1,0% | 1,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | BR-04103/2026 |
| 41,0% | 42,0% | 11,0% | – | 1,0% | 2,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | BR-04103/2026 |
| 40,0% | 42,0% | 11,0% | 4,0% | 1,0% | 1,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | BR-04103/2026 |
| 36,0% | 34,0% | 17,0% | 4,0% | 2,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | BR-02944/2026 |
| 36,0% | 35,0% | 22,0% | – | 2,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | BR-02944/2026 |
| 36,0% | 34,0% | 19,0% | – | 2,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | BR-02944/2026 |
| 37,0% | 30,0% | 14,0% | 3,0% | 1,0% | 4,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7,0% | – | 4,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,3% | BR-03165/2026 |
| 41,0% | 38,0% | 21,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | BR-03165/2026 |
| 40,0% | 34,7% | 9,5% | – | 1,2% | 4,5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | BR-00386/2026 |
| 40,3% | 35,0% | 11,9% | 5,5% | 1,6% | 5,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,8% | BR-00386/2026 |
| 39,6% | 36,3% | 12,0% | – | 1,1% | 5,8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 4,4% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,8% | BR-00386/2026 |
| 37,0% | 30,0% | 21,0% | – | 1,0% | 3,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | BR-05809/2026 |
| 39,0% | 32,0% | 21,0% | 4,0% | 1,0% | 2,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | BR-05809/2026 |
| 36,0% | 33,0% | 21,0% | – | 2,0% | 3,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | BR-05809/2026 |
| 36,0% | 33,0% | 20,0% | – | 2,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | BR-05809/2026 |
| 37,0% | 34,0% | 22,0% | – | 2,0% | 3,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | BR-05809/2026 |
| 36,0% | 34,0% | 22,0% | 4,0% | 2,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | BR-05809/2026 |
| 36,0% | 35,0% | 22,0% | – | 2,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | BR-05809/2026 |
| 37,0% | 37,6% | 10,9% | – | 2,1% | 2,7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9,1% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,7% | BR-06607/2026 |
| 35,1% | 41,9% | 13,1% | 5,7% | 2,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,1% | BR-06607/2026 |
| 35,2% | 41,2% | 11,7% | – | 3,8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 4,6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3,4% | BR-06607/2026 |
| 38,0% | 32,0% | 14,0% | – | 3,0% | 4,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | BR-03715/2026 |
| 39,0% | 33,0% | 15,0% | 4,0% | 3,0% | 5,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | BR-03715/2026 |
| 39,0% | 34,0% | 15,0% | – | 3,0% | 4,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | BR-03715/2026 |
| 36,3% | 44,0% | 10,2% | – | 1,8% | 2,3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 4,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,4% | BR-03742/2026 |
| 39,0% | 32,0% | 14,0% | – | 2,0% | 2,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | BR-09353/2026 |
| 40,0% | 34,0% | 15,0% | – | 2,0% | 3,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 4,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | BR-09353/2026 |
| 40,0% | 33,0% | 15,0% | 5,0% | 2,0% | 3,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | BR-09353/2026 |
| 39,6% | 35,3% | 11,7% | – | 1,5% | 3,8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7,6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,5% | BR-07974/2026 |
| 40,5% | 36,6% | 13,0% | 3,7% | 1,5% | 4,3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,4% | BR-07974/2026 |
| 45,0% | 37,9% | 4,3% | 4,9% | 2,9% | 3,9% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,1% | BR-07600/2026 |
| 45,1% | 39,5% | 3,4% | – | 3,2% | 3,9% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3,8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,1% | BR-07600/2026 |
| 45,3% | 39,1% | 3,5% | – | 3,7% | 5,7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,2% | BR-07600/2026 |
| 35,0% | 29,0% | 22,0% | – | 1,0% | 4,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | BR-00249/2026 |
| 38,0% | 30,0% | 22,0% | 4,0% | 1,0% | 4,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | BR-00249/2026 |
| 38,0% | 31,0% | 21,0% | – | 2,0% | 4,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | BR-00249/2026 |
| 37,0% | 31,0% | 21,0% | – | 2,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | BR-00249/2026 |
| 39,0% | 32,0% | 21,0% | – | 2,0% | 4,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | BR-00249/2026 |
| 39,0% | 32,0% | 22,0% | 4,0% | 2,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | BR-00249/2026 |
| 37,0% | 33,0% | 22,0% | – | 2,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 4,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | BR-00249/2026 |
| 45,0% | 26,9% | 12,8% | 3,1% | 1,6% | 3,1% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7,5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | BR-04291/2026 |
| 35,9% | 37,2% | 12,8% | – | 1,9% | 4,9% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6,1% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,2% | BR-02276/2026 |
| 35,3% | 35,7% | 12,7% | 6,6% | 2,1% | 6,5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,1% | BR-02276/2026 |
| 35,4% | 38,7% | 11,6% | – | 3,3% | 6,6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3,6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,9% | BR-02276/2026 |
| 39,0% | 30,0% | – | – | 1,0% | 3,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | BR-06428/2026 |
| 39,5% | 32,0% | 15,5% | – | 0,7% | 3,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8,8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,5% | BR-08425/2026 |
| 38,7% | 35,3% | 16,0% | – | 0,7% | 5,1% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3,4% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,7% | BR-08425/2026 |
| 39,5% | 33,0% | 15,1% | 5,1% | 0,7% | 6,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,5% | BR-08425/2026 |
| 39,0% | 35,0% | 11,0% | 2,0% | 0,3% | 2,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5,0% | – | – | 4,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | BR-04519/2026 |
| 39,8% | 33,1% | 11,5% | 3,7% | 1,5% | 2,8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6,5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,1% | BR-08254/2026 |
| 48,8% | 35,0% | 1,9% | 4,3% | 3,4% | 2,8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,0% | BR-02804/2026 |
| 35,4% | 34,3% | 10,7% | 3,7% | 1,7% | 4,4% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9,1% | – | 0,1% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,6% | BR-08233/2026 |
| 36,3% | 39,4% | 11,4% | 4,9% | – | 4,8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3,1% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | BR-08233/2026 |
| 38,0% | 39,6% | 9,2% | – | 2,3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 11,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | BR-08233/2026 |
| 38,7% | 43,8% | 10,4% | – | 2,8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 4,2% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | BR-08233/2026 |
| 39,7% | 26,5% | 18,5% | 4,2% | 0,4% | 3,6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,2% | BR-06731/2026 |
| 39,6% | 27,6% | 18,5% | 5,5% | 0,7% | 5,4% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0,2% | BR-06731/2026 |
| 35,0% | 26,0% | 19,0% | 5,0% | 1,0% | 3,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | BR-00835/2026 |
| 37,0% | 23,0% | 25,0% | – | 2,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 11,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | BR-00835/2026 |
| 39,0% | 32,0% | 20,0% | – | 2,0% | 5,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | BR-00835/2026 |
| 38,0% | 31,0% | 22,0% | 5,0% | 2,0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2,0% | BR-00835/2026 |
Deslize a tabela para ver mais dados das pesquisas
Deslize a tabela para ver mais dados das pesquisas
| 48,5% | 43,0% | 8,5% | BR-04579/2026 |
| 44,0% | 39,0% | 17,0% | BR-06591/2026 |
| 46,0% | 45,0% | 10,0% | BR-02874/2026 |
| 46,0% | 43,0% | 11,0% | BR-07845/2026 |
| 47,5% | 41,1% | 11,4% | BR-01084/2026 |
| 48,0% | 41,0% | 11,0% | BR-04488/2026 |
| 49,2% | 42,9% | 7,9% | BR-08602/2026 |
| 47,0% | 43,0% | 10,0% | BR-01489/2026 |
| 48,0% | 43,0% | 10,0% | BR-01166/2026 |
| 45,0% | 46,0% | 9,0% | BR-05026/2026 |
| 45,0% | 42,0% | 13,0% | BR-09247/2026 |
| 46,0% | 39,0% | 15,0% | BR-02904/2026 |
| 45,0% | 43,0% | 11,0% | BR-00059/2026 |
| 45,0% | 37,0% | 18,0% | BR-07181/2026 |
| 47,0% | 44,0% | 9,0% | BR-07981/2026 |
| 46,3% | 46,1% | 7,6% | BR-07294/2026 |
| 42,0% | 45,0% | 13,0% | BR-03067/2026 |
| 42,0% | 45,0% | 13,0% | BR-03067/2026 |
| 45,0% | 40,0% | 15,0% | BR-05628/2026 |
| 48,8% | 42,3% | 8,9% | BR-04582/2026 |
| 47,0% | 44,0% | 9,0% | BR-08521/2026 |
| 45,3% | 42,8% | 11,9% | BR-06630/2026 |
| 46,0% | 43,0% | 11,0% | BR-05722/2026 |
| 47,0% | 40,0% | 13,0% | BR-08944/2026 |
| 40,0% | 42,0% | 18,3% | BR-09657/2026 |
| 47,0% | 43,0% | 9,0% | BR-09956/2026 |
| 49,3% | 36,8% | 13,9% | BR-04256/2026 |
| 49,0% | 43,0% | 9,0% | BR-06645/2026 |
| 48,1% | 42,9% | 9,0% | BR-01461/2026 |
| 44,0% | 41,0% | 15,0% | BR-03496/2026 |
| 44,0% | 38,0% | 18,0% | BR-07661/2026 |
| 39,1% | 44,7% | 16,3% | BR-01792/2026 |
| 47,8% | 41,3% | 10,9% | BR-08016/2026 |
| 45,0% | 40,0% | 15,0% | BR-05864/2026 |
| 46,0% | 42,0% | 12,0% | BR-04882/2026 |
| 46,5% | 41,4% | 12,2% | BR-02918/2026 |
| 46,0% | 41,0% | 13,0% | BR-02154/2026 |
| 46,0% | 41,0% | 13,0% | BR-02154/2026 |
| 47,0% | 43,0% | 10,0% | BR-04193/2026 |
| 44,0% | 47,0% | 9,0% | BR-07971/2026 |
| 47,7% | 42,2% | 10,2% | BR-06529/2026 |
| 47,0% | 43,0% | 11,0% | BR-07489/2026 |
| 46,8% | 38,1% | 15,1% | BR-02416/2026 |
| 50,7% | 38,3% | 11,0% | BR-09301/2026 |
| 45,0% | 45,0% | 10,0% | BR-00290/2026 |
| 40,2% | 43,8% | 16,0% | BR-02423/2026 |
| 43,0% | 50,0% | 8,0% | BR-03369/2026 |
| 42,0% | 41,0% | 17,0% | BR-03598/2026 |
| 44,4% | 46,9% | 8,6% | BR-03678/2026 |
| 44,7% | 45,3% | 10,0% | BR-05356/2026 |
| 43,0% | 44,0% | 13,0% | BR-03627/2026 |
| 47,5% | 47,8% | 4,7% | BR-07992/2026 |
| 46,0% | 45,0% | 9,0% | BR-01075/2026 |
| 40,0% | 42,0% | 18,0% | BR-09285/2026 |
| 44,9% | 40,2% | 14,9% | BR-02847/2026 |
| 42,6% | 48,0% | 9,4% | BR-08282/2026 |
| 45,5% | 45,8% | 8,7% | BR-00605/2026 |
| 38,4% | 42,8% | 18,8% | BR-02476/2026 |
| 46,0% | 46,0% | 7,0% | BR-07875/2026 |
| 44,1% | 45,2% | 10,7% | BR-00873/2026 |
| 45,0% | 48,0% | 8,0% | BR-02846/2026 |
| 46,6% | 47,6% | 5,8% | BR-04227/2026 |
| 41,0% | 41,0% | 18,0% | BR-02944/2026 |
| 47,4% | 45,3% | 7,3% | BR-00386/2026 |
| 41,0% | 41,0% | 18,0% | BR-05809/2026 |
| 40,5% | 48,8% | 10,7% | BR-06607/2026 |
| 45,0% | 42,0% | 13,0% | BR-03715/2026 |
| 40,4% | 49,0% | 10,6% | BR-03742/2026 |
| 42,0% | 41,0% | 17,0% | BR-09353/2026 |
| 43,8% | 44,4% | 11,9% | BR-07974/2026 |
| 46,2% | 46,3% | 7,5% | BR-07600/2026 |
| 43,0% | 38,0% | 19,0% | BR-00249/2026 |
| 50,8% | 35,2% | 14,0% | BR-04291/2026 |
| 42,4% | 48,2% | 9,4% | BR-02276/2026 |
| 45,8% | 41,1% | 13,1% | BR-08425/2026 |
| 45,0% | 45,0% | 10,0% | BR-04519/2026 |
| 44,8% | 42,2% | 13,0% | BR-08254/2026 |
| 49,0% | 45,0% | 6,0% | BR-02804/2026 |
| 41,9% | 48,1% | 10,0% | BR-08233/2026 |
| 46,2% | 37,2% | 16,6% | BR-06731/2026 |
| 45,0% | 38,0% | 17,0% | BR-00835/2026 |
Deslize a tabela para ver mais dados das pesquisas
Por que pesquisas podem ter pesos diferentes?
Nem todas as pesquisas são tratadas da mesma forma nos cálculos do Agregador de Pesquisas da BBC News Brasil.
O peso de um resultado de pesquisa depende de:
- Quantas pessoas foram entrevistadas, já que amostras maiores geralmente são mais precisas;
- Quando a pesquisa foi realizada — as mais recentes têm influência maior na estimativa atual;
- Quanto os resultados de um instituto diferiram, sistematicamente, dos resultados dos demais institutos.
Os cálculos também suavizam variações de curto prazo, ao mesmo tempo em que capturam tendências mais amplas.
O agregador prevê o resultado da eleição?
O agregador foi projetado para mostrar a situação atual da opinião pública, não para prever o resultado final da eleição.
As pessoas podem mudar de ideia, decidir não votar ou não dar uma resposta honesta aos entrevistadores sobre como pretendem votar.
O modelo se baseia apenas nos resultados registrados no TSE, e não corrigiria uma discrepância generalizada nas pesquisas.
*Esta matéria está em constante atualização pela equipe da BBC News Brasil
Reportagem: Laís Alegretti
Produção: Caroline Souza, Laís Alegretti, Sally Morales
Desenvolvedores: Matthew Taylor, Marta Martí, Preeti Vaghela
Design: Caroline Souza e Daniel Arce
Pesquisa e revisão metodológica: Rogerio Wassermann, Libby Rogers e Robert Cuffe
Editores: Carlos Serrano, Nathalia Passarinho, Caio Quero