The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Friday fell -0.32%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) fell -0.48%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) rose +0.08%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) fell -0.35%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) rose +0.04%.
Stocks on Friday initially rallied after the weak US unemployment report, which solidified market expectations for at least two Fed rate cuts by year-end. However, stocks then turned lower as market sentiment turned negative on concern about weaker US corporate earnings if the US economy is headed towards a recession.
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Friday’s Aug payroll report of +22,000 was weaker than the consensus of +75,000. Over the past three months, payrolls have shown an average monthly rise of only +29,000. July payrolls were revised slightly higher to +79,000 from +73,000, but June was revised lower to a decline of -13,000. Aug private payrolls rose by only +38,000, while manufacturing payrolls fell by -12,000. The Aug unemployment rate rose by +0.1 point to a 3.75-year high of 4.3%, up from +4.2% in July, which was in line with market expectations.
Aug average hourly earnings rose by +0.3% m/m, which was in line with market expectations. In a positive inflation development, the Aug average hourly earnings report eased to +3.7% y/y from +3.9% in July and was slightly weaker than expectations of +3.8%.
Stocks received underlying support as the 10-year T-note yield fell -7 bp on the US unemployment report. The markets are now pricing in a 9% chance of a 50 bp rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on Sep 16-17, versus the previous expectations of a zero chance of that 50 bp rate cut. After the fully expected -25 bp rate cut at the Sep 16-17 meeting, the markets are now discounting an 84% chance of a second -25 bp rate cut at the Oct 28-29 meeting, up from a 54% chance as of late Thursday. The markets are now pricing in an overall -73 bp rate cut in the federal funds rate by year-end to 3.65% from the current 4.38% rate.
Regarding tariffs, a federal appeals court ruled late last Friday that President Trump exceeded his authority by imposing global tariffs without Congressional approval, but the court let the tariffs remain in place while appeals continue. The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit Court said, “The statute bestows significant authority on the President to undertake a number of actions in response to a declared national emergency, but none of these actions explicitly include the power to impose tariffs, duties, or the like, or the power to tax.” The case now appears to be headed to the Supreme Court for a final decision. According to Bloomberg Economics, the average US tariff will rise to 15.2% if rates are implemented as announced, up from 13.3% earlier, and significantly higher than the 2.3% in 2024 before the tariffs were announced.
Overseas stock markets on Friday closed mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.53%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +1.24%, snapping a 3-session losing streak. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +1.03%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) rose by +15.5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield fell by -7.1 bp to 4.090% and posted a 5-month low. T-note prices rallied on the weak US unemployment report and the increased chances for Fed easing. T-note prices also saw support from Friday’s -1.6 bp decline to 2.374% in the 10-year inflation expectations rate, driven by the weak unemployment report and the -2.5% plunge in crude oil prices.
The Treasury market on Friday focused on the weak US unemployment and ignored, for the time being, concerns about Fed independence sparked by President Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Cook and by Stephen Miran’s intention to be a Fed Governor while still technically holding his White House job on the Council of Economic Advisors.
European government bond yields ended lower. The 10-year German bund yield fell -5.7 bp to 2.662%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell -7.5 bp to 4.646%.
Swaps are discounting the chances at 1% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the September 11 policy meeting.
US Stock Movers
The Magnificent Seven stocks on Friday closed mixed, with three stocks closing higher and four stocks closing lower. Tesla (TSLA) led the pack with a +3.6% gain after announcing a pay deal for Elon Musk potentially worth as much as $1 trillion to entice him to show up for work at Tesla and meet aggressive targets. Apple (AAPL) closed slightly lower despite news that its annual fiscal sales in India hit a record of nearly $9 billion. Nvidia (NVDA) fell -2.7% on news that Broadcom is encroaching on its AI chip territory. Microsoft (MSFT) fell -2.6%, and Amazon (AMZN) fell -1.4%.
Broadcom (AVGO) rallied +9.4% on an agreement with OpenAI to design and produce a new AI chip, seeking to displace Nvidia’s stronghold in AI chips. Chip stocks were strong in general, with
Micron (MU) up +5.8% and gains of more than +3% in ASML (ASML), KLA-Tencor (KLAC), and Align Technology (ALGN).
Energy stocks fell due to Friday’s -2.5% sell-off in Oct WTI crude oil on reports that Saudi Arabia wants OPEC+ to speed up the next oil production boost. ConocoPhillips (COP), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and Devon Energy (DVN) all closed lower by more than -2%.
Crypto stocks closed mixed, even though Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) rallied +1%. Coinbase (COIN) fell -2.5%, but Strategy (MSTR) rallied +2.5%. Riot Platforms (RIOT) and MARA Holdings (MARA) closed up by more than +0.5%.
Homebuilders rallied on Friday’s continued decline in the 10-year T-note yield, which put downward pressure on mortgage rates. DR Horton (DHI), Lennar (LEN), and PulteGroup (PHM) all closed up by more than +2%, while Toll Brothers (TOL) closed up +1.4%.
Lululemon Athletica (LULU) fell by -18.6% after reducing its guidance due to a weak consumer environment and tariffs.
Earnings Reports(9/8/2025)
Casey’s General Stores (CASY).
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