Hormuz closure keeps Brent above $105 with outlook uncertain
Brent crude closed on Friday at $105.33 a barrel, accumulating a gain of nearly ten dollars from the start of the week, in a market dominated by uncertainty over the US-Iran conflict and the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The European benchmark crude touched $107.40 on Thursday — its weekly peak — before moderating its advance.
The strait remains doubly blocked: Iran is restricting the transit of vessels through the waterway, while the United States maintains a naval blockade on ships leaving Iranian ports. Under normal conditions, the corridor handles 20% of the world’s crude oil and natural gas, 13% of fertilizers, and 9% of automobiles, according to figures from the International Maritime Organization (IMO), which on Friday again strongly advised against transiting the zone, describing it as an unsafe route.
The only relatively positive note of the session was the announcement that negotiations between Washington and Tehran could resume on Saturday in Islamabad. The US team would be led by Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, negotiators designated by President Donald Trump. On the Iranian side, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced on social media the start of a regional tour including Islamabad, Muscat, and Moscow, though without explicitly confirming his participation in talks with the US delegation. The news provided modest relief to markets, which otherwise closed the week lower across Europe.
The energy backdrop continues to weigh on advanced economies. In the United States, the price of a gallon of gasoline has exceeded four dollars for weeks, with West Texas crude around $93 a barrel. In Europe, several airlines have announced route cuts and fare increases, while the International Energy Agency warned this week that the continent could face a jet fuel shortage within weeks if the strait remains closed.
The war, which began on February 28, is approaching its two-month mark with no substantive agreement reached. The outlook for the crude market will depend largely on the outcome of the contacts planned in Pakistan this weekend.
