Uruguay bets on international integration to attract investment amid global uncertainty
The IMF cut its growth forecast for Uruguay from 2.4% to 1.8% for 2026, matching the 2025 rate, as part of a global revision triggered by the conflict in Iran
Uruguay’s government responded on Tuesday to the International Monetary Fund’s latest projections with a strategy centered on trade openness and investment attraction. Deputy Economy and Finance Minister Martín Vallcorba acknowledged the world is going through a moment of great uncertainty driven by the Middle East war, but said the country is working to create positive and favorable conditions for investment and growth.
The IMF cut its growth forecast for Uruguay from 2.4% to 1.8% for 2026, matching the 2025 rate, as part of a global revision triggered by the conflict in Iran. The Fund projects a rebound to 2.6% in 2027. Private Uruguayan analysts are even more cautious: the median of the Central Bank’s survey puts expected growth at 1.3% for this year.
The armed conflict raises doubts about the future path not only of oil prices but of a range of basic inputs, as well as economic activity and inflation at the international level, Vallcorba said at a press conference. All these elements will cause projections at this stage to show a level of variability that could be significant.
Against that backdrop, the deputy minister outlined the international integration agenda being pursued by President Yamandú Orsi’s government: the European Union-Mercosur agreement, progress toward joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the application for membership in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the trade bloc led by China and Asia-Pacific nations. These are a set of actions to improve international integration that create conditions for investment to find Uruguay a more attractive destination, he said.
The remarks came during an event at which a Brazilian company announced a $500 million investment to acquire and upgrade a hotel in the resort city of Punta del Este. Vallcorba said such deals confirm the country is undergoing a re-acceleration of investment.
The IMF’s downgrade for Uruguay is part of a broader revision across Latin America, whose growth is projected at 2.3% for 2026, a tenth of a point below 2025. Globally, the Fund cut its growth forecast from 3.3% to 3.1% and warned that world inflation would rise to 4.4%, driven by higher commodity prices stemming from the Middle East conflict. Without the war, the IMF would have revised its projections upward.
Regionally, Brazil is expected to grow 1.9%, Argentina 3.5%, Chile 2.4%, Colombia 2.3% and Peru 2.8%. Bolivia would be the only economy in contraction, at -3.3%.
